According to the Kalshi prediction platform, Jeremiah Smith is currently ranked among the players with an extremely low chance of winning the Heisman Trophy next season. This figure surprised many, but quickly sparked two opposing viewpoints: one side argued that this assessment was reasonable, while the other believed the market was underestimating one of the most exceptional talents in American college football today.
And if we look deeper into the context, the schedule, and the role of Ohio State, it can be affirmed that Jeremiah Smith not only has a chance – he is on one of the most favorable paths to explode in the Heisman race next season.
When “low odds” doesn’t mean “low probability”
The Heisman Trophy is not simply an award for the player with the best statistics. It’s an award for stories, moments, emotions, and national spotlight. History has proven that many Heisman winners were doubted or considered outside the top contenders at the start of the season.
Jeremiah Smith is falling into that very scenario.
Kalshi’s low odds aren’t due to Smith’s lack of talent, but because the market:
Hasn’t properly assessed his central role in the Ohio State system.
Hasn’t fully considered the impact of the schedule.
And hasn’t anticipated how national media will “tell the story” about him if the Buckeyes win big.
Ohio State and the schedule: the foundation for an explosive season
Ohio State enters the new season with a schedule considered favorable for big wins. This is often underestimated, but in the Heisman race, it’s a huge advantage.
One-sided games mean:
More offensive plays
More snaps in the fourth quarter
Opportunities for highlights when the opponent’s stamina is waning
Jeremiah Smith isn’t the type of player who “disappears” when the team is leading by a large margin. On the contrary, he is the one who:
Is given priority with the ball
Is used to finish the game
And often creates plays that make the audience jump to their feet.
Heisman voters remember highlights more than dry statistics. And Ohio State is creating the perfect conditions for Smith to appear frequently in national news every weekend.
Jeremiah Smith isn’t just a star – he’s the center of the game.
The biggest difference between Jeremiah Smith and many other candidates isn’t his position, but the extent of his influence on the entire game.
Whenever Smith is on the court:
The opposing defense is forced to double-team.
Defensive strategies must be adjusted.
Space is created for the entire offense.
That’s the mark of a “Heisman-caliber” player.
Smith possesses:
An ideal physique.
Explosive speed.
The ability to separate defenders.
And especially, an extremely refined sense of positioning.
He doesn’t need many touches to change the course of a game. Just one long catch, one explosive moment, is enough to shift the emotions of the entire stadium.
Playoff hunt: the moment Jeremiah Smith “goes nuclear”
The most important factor that Kalshi is underestimating is the scenario of Ohio State competing in the playoffs.
If the Buckeyes make the playoffs:
Every game will be nationally televised.
High pressure → brighter spotlight.
Every big moment will be replayed dozens of times.
In crucial games:
A long touchdown.
A decisive catch in the fourth inning.
A “takeover game” performance.
👉 All of this will be inextricably linked to the name Jeremiah Smith.
The Heisman decision won’t be made in August. It will be decided in November, when the story is big enough, emotional enough, and compelling enough.
Heisman history is on the side of the doubters.
Looking back at history:
Few players have won the Heisman as the number one contender from the start of the season.
Underrated players often create the biggest jumps in media and emotion.
Jeremiah Smith is in exactly that position:
Proven talent.
A team strong enough to win big.
And an incredibly compelling “underrated” story for the media.
His current low odds aren’t a sign of risk – they’re a sign of value.
Conclusion: Best player in the country – and the Heisman race isn’t ready yet.
Jeremiah Smith doesn’t need anyone to “give him a chance” to win the Heisman.
He’s forging his own path, game by game, quarter by quarter, moment by moment.
If Ohio State continues to win,
if the playoff lights come on,
then the name that will be talked about across America will be Jeremiah Smith.
Kalshi may be setting low odds today.
But by the end of the season, they will most likely look back and realize:
👉 They underestimated the nation’s best player.